As NATO commemorates its 75th anniversary, the alliance finds itself navigating an increasingly complex and dynamic security landscape. While traditional military threats, terrorism, Russian aggression against Europe, remain a concern, it is cyber threats and hybrid warfare tactics that have emerged as the most significant challenges facing NATO and its member states in the 21st century.
Cyber threats, ranging from malicious cyberattacks from advanced persistent threats (APTs) to sophisticated cyber espionage campaigns, pose a pervasive and ever-evolving threat to the security and stability of NATO member countries. These attacks target critical infrastructure, government networks, military systems, and private sector organizations, with the potential to disrupt economies, undermine democratic institutions, and compromise national security. For instance, a Russian-linked cyber espionage groups known as APT28 or Fancy Bear previously targeted several NATO members, such as Norway, the US, Germany, and France. Not to even mention Russia’s major cyberattack against Estonia in 2007.
Simultaneously, hybrid warfare tactics, which blend conventional military operations with unconventional tactics such as disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and cyber operations, present a multifaceted challenge to NATO’s collective defense posture. Hybrid warfare strategies are designed to exploit vulnerabilities, sow division, and undermine trust within NATO member countries, posing a significant threat to the alliance’s cohesion and resilience. Russia using Wagner forces along with disinformation campaigns across Europe as well as Iran using cyberattacks and proxy forces against the US are some of the examples of hybrid warfare against NATO members.
In response to these evolving threats, NATO has adapted its approach to collective defense and security, recognizing the need for a comprehensive and integrated strategy to address cyber and hybrid threats. The alliance has taken several key steps to enhance its cyber defense capabilities and resilience:
Cyber Defense Policy: NATO has developed a robust cyber defense policy framework, including the Cyber Defense Pledge, which commits member states to enhance their cyber defense capabilities and share information and expertise within the alliance.
Cyber Rapid Reaction Teams: NATO has established Cyber Rapid Reaction Teams (CRRTs) to provide rapid assistance to member states in the event of a significant cyber incident. These teams are tasked with providing technical expertise, incident response support, and cyber defense training to enhance member states’ cyber resilience.
Information Sharing and Collaboration: NATO promotes information sharing and collaboration among member states, industry partners, and international organizations to improve situational awareness, threat intelligence sharing, and joint cyber defense operations.
Capacity Building and Training: NATO conducts cyber defense exercises, training programs, and capacity-building initiatives to strengthen member states’ cyber defense capabilities and enhance their ability to respond effectively to cyber threats.
Future Threats and Solutions
It is likely that Russia would use hybrid threats against newly joined NATO members. Alleged Russian attack on gas pipeline and telecommunication link that connects Finland and Estonia as well as Russian use of refugees against Finland are some of the examples. In addition to newly joined NATO members, one might argue that the recent tension between France and Russia over deployment of French soldiers in Ukraine would encourage Russia to consider using hybrid or cyber threats against France to deter France’s decision to send soldiers to Ukraine.
What would be more serious hybrid threat scenario from Russia is the use of Wagner forces deployed in Belarus to occupy Suwalki gap, which is a very strategic location that connects Estonia, Lithuenia and Latwia to Poland through land, and simultaneously provoking a rebellion among the Russian minorities in these three Baltic countries. European countries are increasingly using high rhetoric and suggesting that a war with Russia would happen soon. And potential attack on Suwalki gap is considered a possible starting point of the expected war.
Putin recently said Russia won’t attack the Baltic countries. However, these three countries heavily support Ukraine. More importantly, as Ukraine retreats and Russian offensive progresses all the way toward major Ukrainian cities, there might be more involved in the Ukraine-Russia war, which may make their territory or airspace Russian targets. In his statement where Putin said Russia won’t attack the Baltic countries as well as Poland and Czechia, he said F-16s, that are now being sent to Ukraine, will use airfields from third party countries, and those third party countries’ airfield will be legitimate targets for Russia. Keeping this in mind, when these Baltic countries allow their airfields or territories to be used in order to help Ukraine, they might be seen as targets by Russia. Instead of directly targeting these countries, which could cause a major war between Russia and NATO, Russia would prefer hybrid threats mentioned above against the Baltic countries.
In terms of solutions, NATO must continue to adapt and evolve its approach to cyber and hybrid warfare threats to ensure the security and resilience of its member states. This includes:
Enhancing Cyber Resilience: NATO should focus on enhancing the cyber resilience of critical infrastructure, government networks, and military systems through robust cybersecurity measures, incident response planning, and resilience-building initiatives. To this end, NATO may want to consider requiring NATO members to invest certain portion of their GDP in cyber defense capabilities.
Building Partnerships: NATO should strengthen partnerships with like-minded allies, international organizations, and the private sector to enhance cooperation and information sharing against cyber and hybrid threats. Bilateral and multilateral cooperation against Iran’s proxy forces and Russian-linked Wagner group are particularly crucial as these forces are serious threats to the security of NATO forces and their national interests.
In conclusion, as NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary, the alliance must confront the realities of a rapidly evolving security environment, where cyber and hybrid warfare threats pose significant challenges to collective security and stability. By adapting its approach, investing in cyber defense capabilities, and strengthening partnerships, NATO can ensure its continued relevance and effectiveness in safeguarding the security and prosperity of its member states in the digital age.
