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Strategic Insight for Defense & Security

Independent analysis and strategic foresight at the intersection of defense, security, and emerging global risks.

The Northern Front After Iran

Key Points: Israeli security discourse should be analysed, not accepted. Lebanon may be theatre shaping before Iran. Hezbollah is the output of a wider system. Air power alone cannot transform Iran. Syria shapes Hezbollah’s logistical depth. Türkiye’s non-entry constrains regional...
Engin Büker -

Regional Conflict & Stability

The Northern Front After Iran

Key Points: Israeli security discourse should be analysed, not accepted. Lebanon may be theatre shaping before Iran. Hezbollah is the output of...
Engin Büker -

The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

Key Points: Gallipoli demonstrates the enduring risks of amphibious assaults against defended coastlines. Kharg Island is strategically valuable but operationally vulnerable. Iran's...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Energy & Maritime Security

Submarine Cable Security: The Anatomy of Asymmetric Pressure in the Gulf Crisis

Key Points : Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Egypt-Suez corridor are dual energy-data chokepoints. In a crisis, repair access...
Cengiz Karakaş -

Germany’s Maritime Defense Test

Key Points : Germany’s defense credibility is likely to be tested through maritime resilience.  Germany’s ability to sustain allied...
Mehmet Sümer -

LNG Terminals as Europe’s Most Vulnerable Strategic Nodes

Key Points : Europe replaced one gas dependency with a new coastal one.  LNG terminals now act as strategic...
Mehmet Sümer -

Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare & Information Operations

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how...
Tuana Sevi -

China’s Semiconductor “Manhattan Project”: Breaking the EUV Monopoly

Key Points: • Monopoly Disrupted: China tested a prototype EUV machine, challenging ASML’s long-standing global monopoly.• Scale: A...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Europe’s Defence Market Transformation: From Complacency to Strategic Rearmament

Key Points: • Structural Rearmament: EU defense spending increased 57% (€218B → €343B, 2021-2024), fastest growth since Cold War's...
Nurettin Sevi -

Defense Technology, Industry & Economic Security

Manned-Unmanned Teaming: Why Nations Are Investing

Key Points : Pilot scarcity, force structure constraints, and China's public MUM-T demonstration are driving a procurement surge...
Nurettin Sevi -

The Rise of the Digital Warrior: How Simulation Is Reshaping Personnel Readiness for Modern War

Military simulation has evolved from a cost-saving supplement into a core pillar of combat readiness. The evidence...
Erdem Yılmaz -

Solving the European Naval Dilemma with Modular Mass

Key points : • European navies are too small to win• Buying off-the-shelf unmanned vessels is a dead...
Gökay Yayla -

Global Power Competition & Systemic Transitions

Germany’s Maritime Defense Test

Key Points : Germany’s defense credibility is likely to be tested through maritime resilience.  Germany’s ability to sustain allied...
Mehmet Sümer -

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : $3.4 trillion in annual trade depends on sustained South China Sea deterrence. China's Bastion doctrine extends...
Şakir Oruç -

NATO Is Not a Choice: Strategic Reality for Europe

Key Points: North Atlantic Treaty Organization is strategic infrastructure, not a political option. Political disagreement with US behavior does...
Engin Büker -

Future Conflict, Climate & Humanity

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Future of Warfare

Key Points : • AI is transforming warfare across tactical, operational, and strategic levels.• It is the first technology capable...
Dr. Murat Çalışkan -

Panel After-Assessment: Is Aligning the Green Deal with Global Crises and Strategic Imperatives Possible?

The European Defence & Security Summit 2024 recently facilitated a pivotal panel discussion on "War Economy for the EU:...
Engin Büker -

Why Polarization in the Military Is a Growing Concern for Democracies

The past few years have seen a wave of concern over how increasing political and social polarization is negatively...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Policy Papers

The overall concept of military defence: Military Strategy and Plan for the Armed Forces

Responsibility for Europe. This document is the publicly accessible part of the first Bundeswehr Military Strategy and the resulting Plan...

Munich Security Report 2026 : Under Destruction

The Munich Security Conference 2026 is taking place at a moment of profound uncertainty. Rarely in the conference’s recent...
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