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Strategic Insight for Defense & Security

Independent analysis and strategic foresight at the intersection of defense, security, and emerging global risks.

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the U.S. and China keep investing in nuclear submarines because deterrence, not war, is the stated goal. China's Bastion doctrine is not coastal defense. The JL-3 missile gives Type 094 submarines the range to threaten the U.S. mainland from near-littoral waters. AUKUS forward basing at HMAS Stirling is designed...
Şakir Oruç -

Regional Conflict & Stability

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points: Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows that...
Mustafa Kirisci -

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...
Tuana Sevi -

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Energy & Maritime Security

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe...
Cengiz Karakaş -

Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus – Lebanon EEZ Agreement: Geopolitical Encirclement and Legal Conflict in The Eastern Mediterranean

Key Points: • GCASC–Lebanon deal reshapes Eastern Mediterranean dynamics• Lebanon’s internal fragility enables Greek Cypriot leverage• US–EU backing...
Latif Yanar -

Why is UAV utilization on the rise in maritime operations?

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), popularly known as drones, have been rapidly adopted in both the civil and...
Nurettin Sevi -

Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare & Information Operations

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how...
Tuana Sevi -

China’s Semiconductor “Manhattan Project”: Breaking the EUV Monopoly

Key Points: • Monopoly Disrupted: China tested a prototype EUV machine, challenging ASML’s long-standing global monopoly.• Scale: A...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Europe’s Defence Market Transformation: From Complacency to Strategic Rearmament

Key Points: • Structural Rearmament: EU defense spending increased 57% (€218B → €343B, 2021-2024), fastest growth since Cold War's...
Nurettin Sevi -

Defense Technology, Industry & Economic Security

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the...
Şakir Oruç -

Swarm UUVs and the Weaponization of the Undersea Domain

Key Points: Swarm UUVs (unmanned undersea vehicles) expand sea denial and deterrence into the undersea realm through scalable,...
Abdurrahman Özmen -

From Cloud to Combat: NATO’s Data Warfighting Model

Key Points: • NATO’s agreement with Google Cloud signals cloud’s shift into the battlespace• Cloud has moved from...
Engin Büker -

Global Power Competition & Systemic Transitions

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the...
Şakir Oruç -

NATO Is Not a Choice: Strategic Reality for Europe

Key Points: North Atlantic Treaty Organization is strategic infrastructure, not a political option. Its value derives from continuous...
Engin Büker -

Measuring Strategic Rupture: NSS-2025 and the Rewiring of US Grand Strategy

Key Points: • NSS-2025 represents a structural break in US grand strategy, not an incremental adjustment.• Measurement across...
Engin Büker -

Future Conflict, Climate & Humanity

Panel After-Assessment: Is Aligning the Green Deal with Global Crises and Strategic Imperatives Possible?

The European Defence & Security Summit 2024 recently facilitated a pivotal panel discussion on "War Economy for the EU:...
Engin Büker -

Why Polarization in the Military Is a Growing Concern for Democracies

*Published on "The National Interest" Ibrahim Kocaman Assistant Professor, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical UniversityMustafa Kirisci Assistant Professor of Homeland Security, DeSales UniversityCagil...
Strategic Analysis Unit -

Why some terror campaigns escalate to civil war and others don’t – study reveals surprising new answers

Ibrahim Kocaman Assistant Professor, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Isa Haskologlu Lecturer, American University Mustafa Kirisci Assistant Professor of Homeland Security, DeSales University Most terrorist campaigns are...
Strategic Analysis Unit -

Policy Papers

Munich Security Report 2026 : Under Destruction

The Munich Security Conference 2026 is taking place at a moment of profound uncertainty. Rarely in the conference’s recent history have there been so...

National Security Strategy, November 2025

"Over the past nine months, we have brought our nation-and the world-back from the brink of catastrophe and disaster. After four years of weakness,...
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