Strategic Insight for Defense & Security

Independent analysis and strategic foresight at the intersection of defense, security, and emerging global risks.

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the U.S. and China keep investing in nuclear submarines because deterrence, not war, is the stated goal. China's Bastion doctrine is not coastal defense. The JL-3 missile gives Type 094 submarines the range to threaten the U.S. mainland from near-littoral waters. AUKUS forward basing at HMAS Stirling is designed...

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points: Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows that...

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
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