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Strategic Insight for Defense & Security

Independent analysis and strategic foresight at the intersection of defense, security, and emerging global risks.

The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points: Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of 2026 have produced a tentative memorandum of understanding but no durable peace Treating Israel as an...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Regional Conflict & Stability

The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points: Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points: Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows that...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Energy & Maritime Security

Submarine Cable Security: The Anatomy of Asymmetric Pressure in the Gulf Crisis

Key Points: Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Egypt-Suez corridor are dual energy-data chokepoints. In a crisis, repair access and...
Cengiz Karakaş -

Germany’s Maritime Defense Test

Key Points Germany’s defense credibility is likely to be tested through maritime resilience.  Germany’s ability to sustain allied movement...
Mehmet Sümer -

LNG Terminals as Europe’s Most Vulnerable Strategic Nodes

Key Points: Europe replaced one gas dependency with a new coastal one.  LNG terminals now act as strategic chokepoints...
Mehmet Sümer -

Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare & Information Operations

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how...
Tuana Sevi -

China’s Semiconductor “Manhattan Project”: Breaking the EUV Monopoly

Key Points: • Monopoly Disrupted: China tested a prototype EUV machine, challenging ASML’s long-standing global monopoly.• Scale: A...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Europe’s Defence Market Transformation: From Complacency to Strategic Rearmament

Key Points: • Structural Rearmament: EU defense spending increased 57% (€218B → €343B, 2021-2024), fastest growth since Cold War's...
Nurettin Sevi -

Defense Technology, Industry & Economic Security

The Rise of the Digital Warrior: How Simulation Is Reshaping Personnel Readiness for Modern War

Military simulation has evolved from a cost-saving supplement into a core pillar of combat readiness. The evidence...
Erdem Yılmaz -

Solving the European Naval Dilemma with Modular Mass

Key points: • European navies are too small to win• Buying off-the-shelf unmanned vessels is a dead end  •...
Gökay Yayla -

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the...
Şakir Oruç -

Global Power Competition & Systemic Transitions

Germany’s Maritime Defense Test

Key Points Germany’s defense credibility is likely to be tested through maritime resilience.  Germany’s ability to sustain allied movement...
Mehmet Sümer -

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the...
Şakir Oruç -

NATO Is Not a Choice: Strategic Reality for Europe

Key Points: North Atlantic Treaty Organization is strategic infrastructure, not a political option. Its value derives from continuous...
Engin Büker -

Future Conflict, Climate & Humanity

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Future of Warfare

Key Points: • AI is transforming warfare across tactical, operational, and strategic levels.• It is the first technology capable of...
Dr. Murat Çalışkan -

Panel After-Assessment: Is Aligning the Green Deal with Global Crises and Strategic Imperatives Possible?

The European Defence & Security Summit 2024 recently facilitated a pivotal panel discussion on "War Economy for the EU:...
Engin Büker -

Why Polarization in the Military Is a Growing Concern for Democracies

The past few years have seen a wave of concern over how increasing political and social polarization is negatively...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Policy Papers

The overall concept of military defence: Military Strategy and Plan for the Armed Forces

Responsibility for Europe. This document is the publicly accessible part of the first Bundeswehr Military Strategy and the resulting Plan...

Munich Security Report 2026 : Under Destruction

The Munich Security Conference 2026 is taking place at a moment of profound uncertainty. Rarely in the conference’s recent...
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