Iran

The Northern Front After Iran

Key Points: Israeli security discourse should be analysed, not accepted. Lebanon may be theatre shaping before Iran. Hezbollah is the output of a wider system. Air power alone cannot transform Iran. Syria shapes Hezbollah’s logistical depth. Türkiye’s non-entry constrains regional escalation. Israel’s objective is denial and preparation. Regeneration is the decisive operational variable. Executive Summary This paper...

Engin Büker - July 15, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 27

July 11, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 26

July 3, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 25

June 26, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 24

June 19, 2026

The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks...

Mustafa Kirisci - June 9, 2026

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

Key Points: Gallipoli demonstrates the enduring risks of amphibious assaults against defended coastlines. Kharg Island is strategically valuable but operationally vulnerable. Iran's...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 25, 2026

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 9, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...

Cengiz Karakaş - February 23, 2026

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...

Tuana Sevi - February 9, 2026

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Open-ended pressure is giving way to decisive, outcome-oriented enforcement operations. Successful enforcement requires alignment across six critical operational and...

Engin Büker - January 9, 2026