Iran

The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of 2026 have produced a tentative memorandum of understanding but no durable peace Treating Israel as an external veto player rather than a junior partner is the missing variable. A...

Mustafa Kirisci - June 9, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 25

June 26, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 24

June 19, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 23

June 12, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 22

June 6, 2026

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 25, 2026

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 9, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...

Cengiz Karakaş - February 23, 2026

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...

Tuana Sevi - February 9, 2026

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Monopoly of Deterrence Disrupted: The traditional model of open-ended pressure is being replaced by a "culminating enforcement outcome"...

Engin Büker - January 9, 2026