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Submarine Cable Security: The Anatomy of Asymmetric Pressure in the Gulf Crisis

Key Points Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Egypt-Suez corridor are dual energy-data chokepoints. In a crisis, repair access and attribution uncertainty may matter more than the physical cutting of a cable. Gulf data center and AI ambitions now depend on maritime routes that were already strategic for energy.  Redundancy requires more...
Cengiz Karakaş -
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Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points: Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows that...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...
Cengiz Karakaş -

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...
Tuana Sevi -

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
Mustafa Kirisci -

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Monopoly of Deterrence Disrupted: The traditional model of open-ended pressure is being replaced by a "culminating enforcement outcome"...
Engin Büker -

Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus – Lebanon EEZ Agreement: Geopolitical Encirclement and Legal Conflict in The Eastern Mediterranean

Key Points: • GCASC–Lebanon deal reshapes Eastern Mediterranean dynamics• Lebanon’s internal fragility enables Greek Cypriot leverage• US–EU backing strengthens Greek...
Latif Yanar -
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