Middle East

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

- Listen to Analysis A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a strategic strait from a weakened adversary. It became one of the worst military disasters in modern history. Washington should take lessons from this disaster before...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 25, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 15

April 17, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 14

April 10, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 13

April 3, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 12

March 27, 2026

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points: Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows that...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 9, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...

Cengiz Karakaş - February 23, 2026

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...

Tuana Sevi - February 9, 2026

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...

Mustafa Kirisci - February 2, 2026

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Monopoly of Deterrence Disrupted: The traditional model of open-ended pressure is being replaced by a "culminating enforcement outcome"...

Engin Büker - January 9, 2026

Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus – Lebanon EEZ Agreement: Geopolitical Encirclement and Legal Conflict in The Eastern Mediterranean

Key Points: • GCASC–Lebanon deal reshapes Eastern Mediterranean dynamics• Lebanon’s internal fragility enables Greek Cypriot leverage• US–EU backing strengthens Greek...

Latif Yanar - December 4, 2025