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The Northern Front After Iran

Key Points: Israeli security discourse should be analysed, not accepted. Lebanon may be theatre shaping before Iran. Hezbollah is the output of a wider system. Air power alone cannot transform Iran. Syria shapes Hezbollah’s logistical depth. Türkiye’s non-entry constrains regional escalation. Israel’s objective is denial and preparation. Regeneration is the decisive operational variable. Executive Summary This paper...
Engin Büker -
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The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Submarine Cable Security: The Anatomy of Asymmetric Pressure in the Gulf Crisis

Key Points : Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Egypt-Suez corridor are dual energy-data chokepoints. In a crisis, repair access and attribution...
Cengiz Karakaş -

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

Key Points: Gallipoli demonstrates the enduring risks of amphibious assaults against defended coastlines. Kharg Island is strategically valuable but operationally vulnerable. Iran's...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...
Cengiz Karakaş -

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...
Tuana Sevi -

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
Mustafa Kirisci -

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Open-ended pressure is giving way to decisive, outcome-oriented enforcement operations. Successful enforcement requires alignment across six critical operational and...
Engin Büker -

Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus – Lebanon EEZ Agreement: Geopolitical Encirclement and Legal Conflict in The Eastern Mediterranean

Key Points: • GCASC–Lebanon deal reshapes Eastern Mediterranean dynamics• Lebanon’s internal fragility enables Greek Cypriot leverage• US–EU backing strengthens Greek...
Latif Yanar -