Regional Conflict & Stability

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The Mecca Pact’s Real Test

Key Points : Türkiye must control every mission accepted under the pact. Intelligence support can create exposure without combat deployment. Defending Saudi territory must not determine Yemen’s settlement. Iranian stability remains a Turkish and Pakistani interest. The next attack will test consent, reciprocity and restraint. Summary+ The Mecca...
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Weekly Strategic Brief – 38

Weekly Strategic Brief – 37

Weekly Strategic Brief – 36

Who Sets Syria’s Security Limits?

Key Points : Israel struck Abu al-Duhur after talks on prospective Turkish deployments. In April 2025, Israel struck T4, Palmyra and...
Regional Conflict & Stability Research Group -

The Mecca Pact Connects Two Wars

Key Points : Türkiye is losing its strategic non-entry position. The pact links Gulf security to NATO. Israel is its main indirect...
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The Northern Front After Iran

Key Points: Israeli security discourse should be analysed, not accepted. Lebanon may be theatre shaping before Iran. Hezbollah is the output of...
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The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

Key Points: Gallipoli demonstrates the enduring risks of amphibious assaults against defended coastlines. Kharg Island is strategically valuable but operationally vulnerable. Iran's...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...
Mustafa Kirisci -

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...
Tuana Sevi -

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
Mustafa Kirisci -

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Open-ended pressure is giving way to decisive, outcome-oriented enforcement operations. Successful enforcement requires alignment across six critical operational and...
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