Regional Conflict & Stability

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The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of 2026 have produced a tentative memorandum of understanding but no durable peace Treating Israel as an external veto player rather than a junior partner is the missing variable. A...

Mustafa Kirisci - June 9, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 24

June 19, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 23

June 12, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 22

June 6, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 21

May 29, 2026

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 25, 2026

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 9, 2026

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...

Tuana Sevi - February 9, 2026

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...

Mustafa Kirisci - February 2, 2026

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Monopoly of Deterrence Disrupted: The traditional model of open-ended pressure is being replaced by a "culminating enforcement outcome"...

Engin Büker - January 9, 2026

Can NATO’s Intelligence and Surveillance Enhancements Turn the Tide in Ukraine?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been a key player, especially in European security, since its founding in...

Engin Büker - August 14, 2024

Ancient Tactics in the Ukraine-Russia War

The strategy that Ukraine has employed since the beginning of the war is referred to by some military experts...

Bahadir Sahin - July 2, 2024

“In a State of WAR” Are We Nearing a Point of No Return?

In the intricate tableau of global geopolitics, the Kremlin's latest declaration that Russia is "in a state of war"...

Engin Büker - March 25, 2024

How Might Putin’s Re-election Impact The Course of War in Ukraine?

Landslide victory on elections Putin has won the elections by getting more votes than its previous election. Leaving aside the...

Ismail Gulmez - March 20, 2024