The European Defence & Security Summit 2024 recently facilitated a pivotal panel discussion on “War Economy for the EU: Possible and/or Necessary?” This session convened distinguished panelists including Sauli Niinistö, Former President of Finland; Camille Grand, Distinguished Policy Fellow and Head of the Defence Initiative at the ECFR; Roberto Cingolani, CEO of Leonardo; James Appathurai, DASG for Innovation, Hybrid, and Cyber at NATO; and Eirik Lie, President of Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. The dialogue delved into the intricate and multifaceted challenges of potentially initiating a war economy within the European Union, set against the backdrop of current geopolitical tensions and historical precedents.
One of the panel attributers has directed a question to the panelists:
“Is the Green Deal of European Union still possible in the current context of global crises and wars?”
As an answer to that question from my perspective, maintaining the objectives of the Green Deal in the current context of global crises, including wars and other disruptions, is challenging but still considered crucial by many policymakers and experts. The integration of Green Deal goals during such tumultuous times often calls for adjustments but also presents unique opportunities for reinforcing sustainability and resilience. Here’s a breakdown of the considerations and dynamics at play:
Challenges
- Economic Prioritization: In times of crisis, such as wars or pandemics, governments might prioritize immediate economic and security concerns over environmental goals. Budgets might be redirected towards defense and recovery, potentially at the expense of sustainability projects.
- Energy Security Concerns: Wars, especially those involving major energy producers, can disrupt global energy markets. For example, the conflict in Ukraine has had significant implications for Europe’s energy supplies, prompting some countries to reconsider their timelines for phasing out fossil fuels.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Global crises can disrupt supply chains for critical materials needed for renewable energy technologies, such as rare earth elements, which can delay the deployment of these technologies.
Opportunities
- Building Resilience: The principles of the Green Deal, such as reducing dependency on fossil fuels and increasing energy efficiency, can actually enhance national security by making countries less vulnerable to external shocks in energy markets.
- Economic Recovery and Green Transition: Economic recovery packages post-crisis present opportunities to invest in green infrastructure, renewable energy, and job creation in sustainable industries, aligning short-term recovery efforts with long-term Green Deal objectives.
- Innovation and Technology: Crises often accelerate innovation. The push for energy independence, for example, could speed up the adoption of renewable energy technologies and smart grids, aligning with the Green Deal’s goals.
Strategic Integration
Incorporating Green Deal objectives into the broader strategic response to crises involves:
- Policy Flexibility: Adapting policies to ensure they are robust enough to withstand economic and geopolitical pressures while still advancing sustainability goals.
- Stakeholder Engagement: Ensuring that all sectors of society are involved in the transition, particularly those most affected by both the crises and the transition policies.
- International Cooperation: Collaborating with international partners to ensure that the movement towards a greener economy is global and not just regional, helping to stabilize global markets and reduce dependencies.
Conclusion
In the context of the war economy and the Green Deal, it is crucial to explore how Europe can align its immediate security and economic recovery strategies with its long-term environmental and climate objectives. This involves discussing how investments in green technologies could enhance Europe’s strategic autonomy and resilience against future crises. While maintaining the Green Deal in its original concept amidst current global challenges is demanding, it remains both possible and necessary, albeit with recalibrated expectations and strategies that reflect the new global realities.
Furthermore, the European Green Deal, primarily an EU initiative, has implications that extend well beyond the Union’s borders, touching on the broader interests of NATO and its diverse membership, including both EU and non-EU countries. As Europe contends with dual challenges—addressing global crises and maintaining its environmental commitments—the role of NATO and its strategic alignment with non-EU members becomes increasingly significant.
Strategic Synergies and Challenges
- Shared Energy Security Concerns: NATO members share common interests in energy security, a critical aspect of both military readiness and economic stability. The push within the EU to diversify energy sources and increase renewable energy adoption under the Green Deal can also serve NATO’s broader goals by reducing dependency on unstable energy supplies and potentially hostile suppliers. Collaborative investments in renewable infrastructure could strengthen ties and provide mutual benefits.
- Technological Innovation and Collaboration: NATO’s focus on innovation and technological advancement intersects with the Green Deal’s emphasis on green technologies. Joint initiatives, possibly leveraging NATO’s science and technology programs, could accelerate the development of sustainable military technologies that benefit all members, enhancing operational capabilities while reducing environmental footprints.
Addressing Diverse Political Landscapes and Funding Challenges
- Coordination Across Diverse Political Landscapes: NATO members that are not part of the EU may have different environmental policies, economic priorities, and regulatory frameworks. This diversity poses challenges in harmonizing approaches to the Green Deal’s objectives but also presents an opportunity to forge a more comprehensive and inclusive approach to global environmental and security challenges, potentially leading to a unified strategy that enhances cohesion and operational synergy across the alliance.
- Funding and Resource Allocation: Balancing funding between immediate defense needs and long-term sustainability projects is a challenge, especially in times of crisis. NATO’s role in facilitating discussions and potentially coordinating funding mechanisms could help align national defense budgets with Green Deal goals, ensuring that investments in defense also contribute to sustainability and vice versa.
Looking Forward As NATO and EU strategies increasingly intersect, integrating Green Deal objectives into NATO’s broader strategic planning could provide a framework for more resilient and adaptable policies. This integration would not only reinforce NATO’s role in addressing environmental challenges but also enhance the strategic depth of the alliance in dealing with new and emerging threats. Ultimately, the successful alignment of the Green Deal with global security needs will require robust dialogue, shared commitments, and innovative thinking across all NATO members. By fostering an environment of cooperation and mutual benefit, NATO can play a pivotal role in ensuring that the pursuit of environmental sustainability and climate neutrality does not compromise but rather enhances global security and stability.