Syrian and Russian jets are intensifying their attacks on opposition forces in northern Syria as a response to the unexpected offensive that has resulted in the regime losing control of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo.
The rebel alliance has successfully captured an important military base located east of Aleppo and large parts of both the Aleppo and Idlib provinces. It has encountered minimal resistance from regime forces on the ground and has come at a time when Syria’s primary supporters, Iran and Russia, are busy with their own conflicts.
The rebels’ remarkable triumph has presented President Bashar al-Assad with his biggest challenge in eight years, as Russian air power has assisted in the reversal of rebel gains in the civil war.
What’s happening in Syria?
A new rebel coalition’s surprise attack on Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, has once again brought the civil war into the public eye.
The offensive marks the first time that opposition forces have seized territory in Aleppo since 2016, thereby breaking the stalemate of a conflict that has never had a formal conclusion.
The resurgence of the conflict, which has resulted in the displacement of nearly 6 million refugees and taken the lives of over 300,000 people, has a broad impact for the region and beyond.
Syria’s civil war—what happened?
Pro-democracy demonstrators in Syria took to the streets in 2011, during the zenith of the Arab Spring, to demand the removal of the authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad.
The protesters faced deadly force. A small organic militia and a few Syrian military defectors began to form an armed opposition as Assad’s forces suppressed the pro-democracy movement.
Foreign powers, including the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as neighboring Turkey, provided support to the opposition forces, which were decentralized and comprised of people with varying ideologies but who shared the common objective of overthrowing Assad.
Iran and Russia, Syria’s allies, increased their support as the anti-government forces expanded. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, combated armed rebel groups on the ground. Russian warplanes provided support to the Syrian Air Force in the skies.
Extremist Islamists, such as al Qaeda, developed an interest in Syria and formed a common front with the moderate Syrian opposition, which did not embrace jihadist involvement.
However, by 2014, the extremists had gained control and ISIS had begun to expand throughout the nation. The United States led an international coalition that was tasked with eliminating the group in Syria, worried that it might turn into a permanent terror hotbed. The coalition intended to avoid confronting the Syrian regime.
Kurdish fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US ally, successfully eradicated ISIS’s territorial presence.
In 2020, Russia and Turkey reached a ceasefire in the final opposition-held province, Idlib. The two countries agreed to build a security corridor with joint patrols.
The Syrian government has never regained all of its territory, despite the absence of any significant flare-ups since that time. Furthermore, the events in Aleppo have shown that armed resistance has never been defeated.
Why has conflict resumed?
Wednesday marked the start of the offensive after rebels formed the “Military Operations Command.” After sweeping through villages outside Aleppo, they control much of the city with little resistance.
The government’s key allies are busy with other conflicts, so the rebels may be trying to take advantage of their weakness.
Russian and Syrian forces launched airstrikes in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib in response to the rebel advance.
Russia has plowed manpower and resources into the Ukraine war. Russia is Assad’s primary ally in the air.
Israel has launched a barrage of attacks on Iran, targeting Hezbollah in particular. Syrian rebels are advancing in the country, according to analysts, because of the group’s departure.
When Assad’s forces lose Aleppo, it is a major setback for them. It is one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities and was formerly the economic and population center of Syria.
Before 2016, Aleppo was also a major rebel stronghold. After regaining control of the area, the rebels no longer find themselves trapped in Idlib, potentially triggering a chain reaction.
