The authors of the scenarios in this publication were tasked exactly that: identify a weak signal in their area of expertise that could lead to a major disruption, and follow one causal chain to 2028 and beyond. They were free to identify the location, the causes, and the effects, as long as the causal chain proved to be plausible and evidence-based. Of course, each scenario presented in this publication is only one of several pathways a development could take. They therefore should not be judged by their predictive accuracy, but by their utility in increasing adaptability and effectiveness as we think through scenarios we have never thought about before…
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