On March 15, 2023, a bill about the US Black Sea Strategy was introduced in the United States Senate. Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the lack of a robust strategy of either the US and the NATO has been criticized in the West. And this bill would apparently satisfy their strategic mishap.
But what is in the bill? How does the US see the Black Sea basin? Which strategies do they plan to implement for the region?
According to the US Black Sea Security Act of 2023, in general, the US sees Russian aggressive moves and hybrid warfare practices as urgent threats for the region. The possibility of a food crisis in case Russia moves out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is also seen as a threat. Russian economic coercion using hydrocarbon dependency of regional states and Chinese economic infiltration into the region are also threats to US interests in the region. Turkey’s behavior towards the region is also seen as a problem field to be dealt with.
First, we take on Russia. The bill implies that US congressmen consider Russian military moves in the Black Sea region as attempts to expand its territory and control access to the Mediterranean Sea through the Black Sea.
To deter Russia from achieving those aims, the US plans to exert more military power in the region. This includes:
– permanent land, air, amphibious, and special forces in Romania and Bulgaria in order to protect these NATO countries and Moldova from further Russian aggression and to be prepared to intervene in Ukraine when conditions arise;
– intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems to monitor Russia’s operations in the Black Sea region;
– possibly regular, rotational maritime presence in the Black Sea in the short term and a permanent maritime presence if it succeeds in an update on the Montreux Convention by allowing more freedom of navigation for non-littoral navies. The aim of the maritime presence could be the following: protecting NATO allies and partners at the Black Sea against threats from the sea; protecting Ukrainian maritime trade routes if Russia abandons the Black Sea Grain Initiative; and, when conditions arise, being prepared to assist Ukraine in taking back Crimea and other coastal territories invaded by Russia. (Trenches and barricades recently built by Russia against possible landings in Crimea, taking into consideration that Ukraine does not have such landing capacity, are clear indicators that Russia does not rule out the possibility of Western landings on Crimea);
– possibly a joint, multinational three-star headquarters on the Black Sea, responsible for planning, readiness, exercises, and coordination of all Allied and partner military activity in the greater Black Sea region.
To counter Russian hybrid warfare, the US plans to
– combat Russian disinformation and propaganda in the Black Sea region, utilizing the resources of the United States government, including the Global Engagement Center.
– communicate the changes to NATO posture to the public in allied and partner countries, as well as to publics in the Russian Federation and Belarus;
To mitigate the threat of a global food crisis due to Russia’s potential withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the US plans to find sustainable, long-term alternatives to sea-based Ukrainian grain exports.
To counter Russia’s use of hydrocarbons as a weapon against regional countries, the US plans to increase their energy security by means of source diversification.
According to the bill, China’s coercive economic options destabilize and further erode the economic integration of the Black Sea states. The US plans to counter Chinese economic infiltration into the region by:
– providing economic alternatives to the PRC’s coercive economic options;
– working with the EU on coordinating a strategy to support democratic initiatives and economic prosperity in Black Sea countries which are all either members or aspirant of EU;
– bolstering economic ties with the countries by increasing investment, particularly on energy, climate, and transport infrastructure initiatives.
Finally, although Turkey’s important role in negotiating a deal with Russia to allow grain exports from Ukrainian ports through a safe corridor in the Black Sea is seen as very positive, its behavior towards some regional allies and democratic states (Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia) is seen by the US as counterproductive and tension-increasing.
In the bill, it is also stated that Turkey’s continued delay in ratifying Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO undermines the strength of the alliance and inhibits the united international response to Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine. (Turkey approved Finland’s membership bid after this bill was introduced.)
To sum up, this bill would constitute the US’s updated Black Sea Strategy. If it is implemented, a more active US would be seen in the Black Sea region. It plans to use its military, economic tools, and anti-propaganda methods to counter the Russian and Chinese effect. We hope this serves only as a deterrent, not an escalation.