This Week at a Glance
- U.S. strikes Iran after attacks on bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
- Hormuz attacks trigger U.S. sanctions and disrupt tanker traffic.
- Russia sustains long-range attacks on Kyiv.
- Ukraine establishes a Long-Range Strike Command and expands drone production.
- Iraq advances pipeline plans to diversify oil exports beyond Hormuz.
- China and India-linked hackers target Pakistani law enforcement.
- Nine countries launched a multinational defense financing bank.
- Washington reviews Turkey’s F-35 access and CAATSA sanctions.
- NATO upgrades Baltic air defence and selects Saab GlobalEye aircraft.
- Germany approves Tomahawk missile acquisition.
- China conducts a submarine-launched ballistic missile test.
- Record ocean heat reaches historic levels.
Strategic Overview
Direct military exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces expanded after Iranian attacks on American military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait and subsequent U.S. strikes. Continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates how regional escalation is increasingly generating simultaneous military, economic and maritime security consequences across the Gulf.
Ukraine established a dedicated Long-Range Strike Command while expanding international drone production through allied industrial partnerships. Together with continued Western military support, these developments indicate a transition from sustaining battlefield operations toward building long-term military capacity and industrial resilience.
The Ankara NATO Summit reinforced the Alliance’s continued adaptation to a more demanding security environment. Beyond political disagreements, the week produced tangible progress in integrated air defence, multinational capability development and European defence industrial cooperation, strengthening NATO’s long-term deterrence posture.
China’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test and state-linked cyber activity targeting Pakistani institutions highlighted the continued expansion of strategic competition across the Indo-Pacific. The combination of conventional deterrence and hybrid operations reinforces the region’s growing importance in long-term geopolitical rivalry.
Research Field Analysis
Regional Conflict & Stability Group
Gulf Regional Conflict
U.S. forces launched strikes against Iran after retaliatory missile and drone attacks targeted American military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The exchange marked the first direct Iranian attacks on U.S. facilities in Gulf host states during the current escalation. The confrontation demonstrates a shift from maritime confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz toward a broader regional conflict involving Gulf host states.
Kyiv Missile Campaign
Russia sustained a three-day missile and drone campaign targeting Kyiv between July 5 and July 7. Ukrainian air defences intercepted multiple waves of attacks, although falling debris damaged civilian infrastructure. The operation reflects Russia’s continued reliance on sustained long-range strikes to pressure Ukraine’s capital rather than pursuing isolated decisive attacks.
Energy & Maritime Security Group
Hormuz Shipping Disruption
Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered new U.S. sanctions and NATO maritime consultations. Tanker traffic remained well below pre-conflict levels as shipping companies delayed or rerouted transits following renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges. The United States accelerated the termination of Iranian oil sales authorizations by shortening the sanctions wind-down period to July 17, reinforcing the economic response to maritime escalation.
Iraq Pipeline Diversification
Iraq approved feasibility studies for strategic oil pipelines linking Basra to Ceyhan in Turkey and Baniyas in Syria. The proposed corridors would provide alternative export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The initiative reflects Iraq’s effort to strengthen long-term energy export resilience amid persistent regional security risks.
Russian Shadow Fleet Sanctions
Ukraine imposed sanctions on eight tankers identified as part of Russia’s shadow fleet transporting crude oil. The measures target the maritime logistics network supporting Russian oil exports and sanctions evasion. Kyiv also called for stronger international enforcement against the commercial shipping infrastructure sustaining Russia’s wartime revenues.
Hybrid Threats, Cognitive Warfare & Information Operations Group
South Asian Cyber Espionage
China and India-linked hacking groups targeted Pakistani law enforcement and internal security institutions in an apparent cyber espionage campaign. The operation focused on intelligence collection rather than disruptive or destructive cyber effects. The activity highlights the growing use of state-linked cyber espionage as a tool of strategic competition in South Asia.
Defense Technology, Industry & Economic Security Group
Ukraine Long-Range Strike Command
Ukraine established a dedicated Long-Range Strike Command to coordinate sustained deep-strike operations against strategic Russian targets. Recent operations reached energy infrastructure as far as the Omsk refinery in Siberia, around 2,700 km from Ukrainian-held territory. The new command institutionalizes Ukraine’s long-range strike capability as a permanent element of its military strategy.
NATO GlobalEye Procurement
NATO selected Saab’s GlobalEye aircraft to replace its aging E-3A AWACS fleet. The platform combines airborne early warning, maritime surveillance and ground sensing within a single system. The decision strengthens European industrial participation in one of the Alliance’s core strategic C4ISR capabilities.
Defense Financing Bank
Nine countries, led by Canada, agreed to establish the £100 billion Defense, Security and Resilience Bank. The institution will provide financing and loan guarantees to expand defense industrial capacity and is expected to become operational by 2027. The initiative introduces a new multinational mechanism to support long-term defense industrial investment.
Ukrainian Drone Production
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed international agreements to expand joint drone production beyond Ukraine. The partnerships increase manufacturing capacity through allied industrial networks while strengthening the long-term sustainability of Ukraine’s defense industrial base.
Starlink Electronic Warfare
Russia is intensifying electronic warfare operations against Starlink satellite communications used by Ukrainian drone operators. The campaign targets the communications architecture supporting unmanned operations rather than the platforms themselves. The activity highlights the growing importance of commercial space infrastructure in modern warfare.
UK-Netherlands Naval Partnership
The United Kingdom and the Netherlands launched a £32 billion maritime partnership for joint warship construction and technology development. The initiative strengthens long-term naval industrial cooperation and supports future fleet modernization across both countries.
German Tomahawk Acquisition
Germany approved the acquisition of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles to establish a long-range conventional strike capability. The decision reflects Berlin’s continued military modernization and expands its contribution to NATO’s conventional deterrence posture.
U.S.-Turkey Defense Talks
Washington is considering lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and restoring access to the F-35 fighter jet program. Discussions include possible arrangements for Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 system, although congressional approval remains a significant obstacle to any final agreement.
Global Power Competition & Systemic Transitions Group
Chinese SLBM Test
China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific Ocean, demonstrating continued development of its sea-based strategic deterrent. The launch raised regional transparency concerns and coincided with heightened Indo-Pacific security activity. The test reinforces China’s expanding strategic deterrence posture across the Pacific.
Baltic Air Defence Upgrade
NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing mission to a standing integrated air and missile defence mission. The transition embeds the regional mission within the Alliance’s broader air defence architecture. The change represents a long-term adjustment to NATO’s deterrence posture on its northeastern flank.
Greenland Sovereignty Dispute
President Trump renewed calls for U.S. control of Greenland, citing its strategic importance for Arctic defence. Greenlandic and Danish leaders firmly rejected the proposal. The dispute keeps Arctic sovereignty and regional security at the center of transatlantic strategic competition.
U.S. Ukraine Diplomacy
The United States continued to combine military support for Ukraine with diplomatic efforts toward a negotiated settlement. While political agreement on additional Patriot systems has strengthened Ukraine’s long-term air defence outlook, delivery timelines remain constrained by production capacity. The approach reflects Washington’s parallel pursuit of deterrence and diplomacy.
Future Conflict, Climate & Humanity Group
Record Ocean Temperatures
Global sea surface temperatures reached record levels for June as a developing El Niño added further pressure to already warming oceans. Scientists warned that accumulated ocean heat is likely to intensify extreme weather, including stronger tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and heavy rainfall. Together, these trends are emerging as long-term risk multipliers for coastal infrastructure, maritime activity and climate resilience.
Cross-Domain Strategic Signals
Institutionalization of Ukrainian Deep Strike
Ukraine’s establishment of a dedicated Long-Range Strike Command transforms deep-strike operations from isolated attacks into a sustained military capability. By placing long-range operations under a permanent command structure, Kyiv is increasing coordinated pressure on Russia’s strategic infrastructure, energy system and wartime logistics.
NATO’s Shift to Integrated Air Defence
NATO’s transition from Baltic air policing to an integrated air and missile defence mission reflects a structural evolution in the Alliance’s deterrence posture. Combined with expanding capability development and defence industrial cooperation, the shift reinforces NATO’s move toward a more integrated and permanent European security architecture.
Strategic Diversification of Gulf Energy Routes
Military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, together with Iraq’s pursuit of alternative export corridors, underscores the growing importance of diversified energy routes and multinational maritime coordination. Together, these developments reinforce the Gulf’s role as a focal point where regional conflict increasingly intersects with global energy security.
Expanding Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific
China’s submarine-launched ballistic missile test and state-linked cyber activity targeting Pakistani institutions illustrate the growing integration of conventional deterrence and hybrid competition across the Indo-Pacific. Together, these developments reinforce the region’s central role in long-term geopolitical rivalry and strategic military modernization.
What to Watch Next Week
- Defense, Security and Resilience Bank implementation.
- Qatar-mediated U.S.-Iran negotiations.
- Expiration of the U.S. Iranian oil sales license (July 17).
- NATO-Gulf maritime coordination talks.
- Patriot delivery and financing arrangements for Ukraine.
- Recovery of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
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