The recent landslide victory of President Vladimir Putin in Russia’s elections has not only cemented his power but also sparked debates worldwide about its implications, particularly for the delicate balance of US-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
For the United States, Putin’s continued leadership presents a challenge, regardless of who sits in the White House. A potential reelection of Donald Trump in 2024 could further complicate matters. Trump’s past affinity for Putin and his reluctance to confront Russian aggression may embolden Putin, not just over the war with Ukraine, but also in other regions of the world where Russia seeks to exert greater influence, such as in Africa.
On the other hand, a victory for Joe Biden could signal a different approach. A Biden win would likely lead to continued pressure on Putin’s regime and a more confrontational approach to addressing Russian aggression in Ukraine as well as in other countries, especially in Europe. If re-elected, Biden administration would likely ramp up support for Ukraine with increased military aid. Beyond Ukraine, the second Biden administration would also engage with European allies to increase their military readiness against the possibility of further aggression of Russia in Baltic Sea and broader Europe.
A Trump victory, however, might see a lack of robust US support for Ukraine, potentially emboldening Putin to escalate the conflict further. This will likely encourage European allies to increase their military support for Ukraine to compensate the lack of US support, but it remains to be seen if Europe will be able to replace the US’s tremendous support for Ukraine. As he mentioned before, Trump will be willing to end the war very quickly if he is re-elected. Although he thinks he can do this unilaterally without necessarily consulting Ukraine and European allies, it is unlikely that a potential peace deal Trump would support will be accepted by Ukraine or European partners, even if Russia finds the terms favorable to them.
Finally, even though who will be the next president of the US would definitely affect the relations with Russia, which party will hold the majority in Congress will also shape the sitting president’s policies toward Russia. A uniform government (i.e. Democrat President and Democrat-majority in Congress and vice and versa) would strengthen the president’s hand in dealing with Russia in foreign policy. On the other hand, a divided government where different parties hold majority in Congress would be unsupportive of both Trump and Biden’s choices in handling the crises with Russia.