Landslide victory on elections
Putin has won the elections by getting more votes than its previous election. Leaving aside the fairness of the elections, this is the official result in Russia. In its speech right after the elections, Putin said that the results indicated citizens’ trust and support what is being done by the government.
He described the purpose of the war in Ukraine as to defend Motherland and protect people who sees its future with Russia from “Ukrainian Nazi regime”. Unfortunately, some Ukraine’s attacks on Russian soil (even on the eve of the elections) and especially those targeting non-military objects / civilian infrastructure empower Putin’s these arguments.
About the war in Ukraine ultimately he added: “(I assure you that) All the objectives (set) will be achieved.”
Assessment of Russia’s success in reaching objectives for the Ukrainian War
According to several direct and indirect comments made by Russian officials, Russia’s objectives for the Ukrainian war can be summarized into following topics (in the order from tactical to strategical level):
- Annexation of Crimea, Odesa, Donbas,
- Removing Zelensky regime from power 1,
- Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership,
- Weakening NATO in the region2,
- Re-creation of “the USSR” (Regaining Russia’s former influence in Europe)3.
We can comment on Russia’s success in Ukrainian war with its level of success in reaching out above goals.
- Russia annexed Crimea and Donbas, but could not managed to reach Odesa. Furthermore, the people of Odesa, the majority of whom are citizens of Russian origin, took an anti-Russian stance as a result of unwarranted aggression by Russia.
- Far from Zelensky’s removal from power, Zelensky strengthened his grip on the country.
- Ukraine’s will to be a NATO member and position itself in Western axis in general rather increased.
- Contrary to what Russia aims for, NATO influence has increased in eastern Europe, close to the border of Russia. Two important states in the Northeastern Europe abandoned their long-standing neutrality and became NATO members. Furthermore, it can also be said that due to Russian aggression to its neighbor, ordinary citizens of the former USSR member states, called Near Abroad, do not view Russia with the same sympathy as before, although their heads of state do not dare to oppose Russia for now. Hence Russia is far from regaining its superpower status ruling the Eastern Europe.
Regaining its power in the former Iron Curtain countries is only possible if Russia physically and mentally weakens NATO and EU’s influence in the region. To that end, Russia has strong “alike-thinkers” directly in NATO and / or EU member countries. Anti-liberal populist leaders growing stronger day by day in those countries oppose the EU and the presence of NATO on their soils. Main stream media in some countries try to influence public opinion directly or indirectly serve for the same goal. So the unity of the EU and the foot of NATO in Europe are under attack from within.
Overall, it can be said that although Russia is partly or wholly failing to achieve its tactical and operational objectives for the Ukrainian war, strategically it succeeds in seriously threatening the unique long-standing union in Europe and NATO’s presence in European soil.
Putin wants to maintain instability
The prolongation of the war is working in Putin’s favor. The instability caused by the protracted war weakens EU countries economically, sows seeds of anxiety in society, and ultimately feeds political movements in Europe that serve Putin’s strategic goals. Therefore, it is to be expected that Putin will not change the course of war but continue to make inputs to the Russian military leadership in favor of prolonging the war and thus the instability in Europe.
1 http://duma.gov.ru/en/news/58634/#
2 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-goals-russias-special-military-operation-ukraine-remain-unchanged-2024-02-07/
3 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/03/03/putin-says-he-wishes-he-could-change-the-collapse-of-the-soviet-union-many-russians-agree/