The recent European Defence & Security Summit 2024 hosted a critical panel discussion on the topic “War Economy for the EU: Possible and/or Necessary?” This discussion brought together esteemed panelists including Sauli Niinistö, Former President of Finland; Camille Grand, Distinguished Policy Fellow and Head of the Defence Initiative at the ECFR; Roberto Cingolani, CEO of Leonardo; James Appathurai, DASG for Innovation, Hybrid and Cyber, NATO; and Eirik Lie, President of Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace. The dialogue centered around the complex and multifaceted nature of establishing a war economy in the European Union, considering the current geopolitical tensions and the historical precedents.
The panel coordinator opened the discussion with two critical questions:
- Is war economy for European Union possible?
- Is that necessary?
Responding to these questions, I offer an analysis based on my professional experiences and perspectives. The issue of establishing a war economy in the European Union is inherently complex and multifaceted, encompassing economic, strategic, and ethical dimensions. Here is an exploration of how to consider these aspects:
Possibility of a War Economy for the EU
- Historical Precedent and Capacity:
- Historically, many European nations have mobilized their economies in times of war, redirecting resources from civilian to military needs. The EU, with its advanced industrial base and significant technological capabilities, certainly possesses the capacity to support a war economy should the need arise.
- Integration and Coordination:
- The EU’s integrated market and political cooperation mechanisms could potentially facilitate a coordinated shift towards a war economy. However, this would require unprecedented levels of cooperation and alignment among member states, each with its own political and economic priorities.
Necessity of a War Economy for the EU
- Defense Needs and Global Security Context:
- The necessity of a war economy could be argued from the standpoint of increasing threats and instability in regions critical to EU interests, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The EU might find it necessary to bolster its defense capabilities more robustly to ensure collective security and deter aggression.
- Strategic Autonomy:
- In the context of striving for strategic autonomy, particularly in defense, the EU could consider a war economy to reduce dependence on non-EU countries for critical military supplies and technologies.
- Economic and Social Costs:
- While a war economy can accelerate technological and industrial development in certain sectors, it also comes with high economic and social costs. Redirecting resources towards military ends can strain public budgets, increase national debt, and potentially lead to austerity measures in other public sectors like education and health.
- Ethical and Political Implications:
- The shift towards a war economy would also raise significant ethical and political questions. It could lead to debates over the balance between security and civil liberties, the militarization of society, and the ethical implications of increased arms production and export.
Conclusion
The decision to adopt a war economy in the EU should not merely focus on feasibility but also carefully weigh the potential costs against the strategic benefits. This involves a nuanced assessment of the current geopolitical landscape, the EU’s long-term strategic goals, and the potential impacts on the European project and its values. Moving towards a war economy is a deeply strategic decision that requires a balanced approach, addressing both immediate security needs and long-term consequences for the EU and its citizens.
Future Directions
The discussion underscored the need for further strategic dialogues among EU policymakers, defense industry leaders, and academic experts to continuously evaluate the evolving security landscape and economic impacts. This ongoing conversation will be vital in shaping the future economic strategies of the European Union in a global context marked by increasing security challenges.