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The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of 2026 have produced a tentative memorandum of understanding but no durable peace Treating Israel as an external veto player rather than a junior partner is the missing variable. A...
Mustafa Kirisci -
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Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...
Cengiz Karakaş -

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...
Tuana Sevi -

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
Mustafa Kirisci -

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Monopoly of Deterrence Disrupted: The traditional model of open-ended pressure is being replaced by a "culminating enforcement outcome"...
Engin Büker -

Can NATO’s Intelligence and Surveillance Enhancements Turn the Tide in Ukraine?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been a key player, especially in European security, since its founding in...
Engin Büker -

Ancient Tactics in the Ukraine-Russia War

The strategy that Ukraine has employed since the beginning of the war is referred to by some military experts...
Bahadir Sahin -

“Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum”, Europe’s Defense Awakening

In a world defined by increasing geopolitical tensions and emerging threats, the European Union is at a critical juncture....
Engin Büker -
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