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The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points: Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of 2026 have produced a tentative memorandum of understanding but no durable peace Treating Israel as an external veto player rather than a junior partner is the missing variable. A Game...

Mustafa Kirisci - June 9, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 23

June 12, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 22

June 6, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 21

May 29, 2026

Weekly Strategic Brief – 20

May 22, 2026

Submarine Cable Security: The Anatomy of Asymmetric Pressure in the Gulf Crisis

Key Points: Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Egypt-Suez corridor are dual energy-data chokepoints. In a crisis, repair access and attribution uncertainty...

Cengiz Karakaş - May 25, 2026

Germany’s Maritime Defense Test

Key Points Germany’s defense credibility is likely to be tested through maritime resilience. Germany’s ability to sustain allied movement could shape...

Mehmet Sümer - May 19, 2026

The overall concept of military defence: Military Strategy and Plan for the Armed Forces

Responsibility for Europe. This document is the publicly accessible part of the first Bundeswehr Military Strategy and the resulting Plan...

Strategic Analysis Unit - May 19, 2026

LNG Terminals as Europe’s Most Vulnerable Strategic Nodes

Key Points: Europe replaced one gas dependency with a new coastal one. LNG terminals now act as strategic chokepoints in Europe’s...

Mehmet Sümer - April 21, 2026

Solving the European Naval Dilemma with Modular Mass

Key points: • European navies are too small to win• Buying off-the-shelf unmanned vessels is a dead end • EUROGUARD can...

Gökay Yayla - April 6, 2026

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

A century ago, in March 1915, the world’s greatest naval power launched a bold amphibious assault to seize a...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 25, 2026

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : Roughly $3.4 trillion in trade passes through the South China Sea annually, yet both the U.S. and...

Şakir Oruç - March 12, 2026

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points: Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows that...

Mustafa Kirisci - March 9, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...

Cengiz Karakaş - February 23, 2026