Regional Conflict & Stability

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Who Sets Syria’s Security Limits?

Key Points : Israel struck Abu al-Duhur after talks on prospective Turkish deployments. In April 2025, Israel struck T4, Palmyra and Hama after Turkish evaluations. Türkiye seeks an integrated Syrian state aligned with its security priorities. The Mecca Pact’s operational and command structures remain under...
Regional Conflict & Stability Research Group -
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Weekly Strategic Brief – 36

The Mecca Pact Connects Two Wars

Key Points : Türkiye is losing its strategic non-entry position. The pact links Gulf security to NATO. Israel is its main indirect...
Engin Büker -

The Northern Front After Iran

Key Points: Israeli security discourse should be analysed, not accepted. Lebanon may be theatre shaping before Iran. Hezbollah is the output of...
Engin Büker -

The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

Key Points: Gallipoli demonstrates the enduring risks of amphibious assaults against defended coastlines. Kharg Island is strategically valuable but operationally vulnerable. Iran's...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...
Mustafa Kirisci -

When Protest Loses Visibility: Iran’s Use of Uncertainty as an Internal Security Tool

Key Points: Iran’s response to recent unrest is distinctive less for the scale of repression than for how uncertainty has...
Tuana Sevi -

The Rojava Gamble: How the S.D.F. Bargained Away Its Future

Key Points: The S.D.F. overplayed its hand by assuming the U.S. would prioritize Kurdish autonomy over Syrian stability. But it failed...
Mustafa Kirisci -

The “Gate Compression” Doctrine: Deciphering the US-Israel-Iran Escalation Blueprint

Key Points: Open-ended pressure is giving way to decisive, outcome-oriented enforcement operations. Successful enforcement requires alignment across six critical operational and...
Engin Büker -

Can NATO’s Intelligence and Surveillance Enhancements Turn the Tide in Ukraine?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been a key player, especially in European security, since its founding in...
Engin Büker -
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