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The Third Player at the Table: Israel and the Two-Level Game in the US–Iran War

Key Points : Two-level game theory frames international negotiation as bargaining that happens simultaneously abroad and at home The US–Iran talks of 2026 have produced a tentative memorandum of understanding but no durable peace Treating Israel as an external veto player rather than a junior partner is the missing variable. A...
Mustafa Kirisci -
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Submarine Cable Security: The Anatomy of Asymmetric Pressure in the Gulf Crisis

Key Points : Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Egypt-Suez corridor are dual energy-data chokepoints. In a crisis, repair access and attribution...
Cengiz Karakaş -

Germany’s Maritime Defense Test

Key Points : Germany’s defense credibility is likely to be tested through maritime resilience.  Germany’s ability to sustain allied movement could...
Mehmet Sümer -

The overall concept of military defence: Military Strategy and Plan for the Armed Forces

Responsibility for Europe. This document is the publicly accessible part of the first Bundeswehr Military Strategy and the resulting Plan...
Strategic Analysis Unit -

LNG Terminals as Europe’s Most Vulnerable Strategic Nodes

Key Points : Europe replaced one gas dependency with a new coastal one.  LNG terminals now act as strategic chokepoints in...
Mehmet Sümer -

Solving the European Naval Dilemma with Modular Mass

Key points : • European navies are too small to win• Buying off-the-shelf unmanned vessels is a dead end  • EUROGUARD...
Gökay Yayla -

Before Storming Kharg Island, Washington Should Read the Gallipoli Campaign

Key Points: Gallipoli demonstrates the enduring risks of amphibious assaults against defended coastlines. Kharg Island is strategically valuable but operationally vulnerable. Iran's...
Mustafa Kirisci -

U.S.-China Nuclear Competition Beneath the South China Sea

Key Points : $3.4 trillion in annual trade depends on sustained South China Sea deterrence. China's Bastion doctrine extends nuclear deterrence...
Şakir Oruç -

Decapitation Is Not Defeat: Why Striking Iran’s Leadership May Unleash a Harder War

Key Points : Destroying Iran’s leadership hierarchy does not destroy its cause. History, from Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, shows...
Mustafa Kirisci -

Iran’s Hormuz Card: Mine Warfare and the Timeline of Control

Key Points: Even limited mining can effectively halt passage. Iran can make narrow channels risky within hours. The first safe corridor could...
Cengiz Karakaş -
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