Key Points:
• AI is transforming warfare across tactical, operational, and strategic levels.
• It is the first technology capable of partially replacing humans in combat and decision-making.
• Technology alone does not determine victory in war.
• AI shifts rather than eliminates uncertainty, creating new vulnerabilities.
• Advantage depends on effective integration into strategy and institutions.
• Political systems shape how quickly and effectively AI is adopted.
Introduction
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly recognized as one of the most consequential technological developments affecting the future of warfare. Advances in machine learning, robotics, autonomous systems, and large-scale data analytics are transforming how military organizations collect intelligence, plan operations, and conduct combat. Many analysts argue that AI represents a disruptive military innovation capable of reshaping the battlefield in ways comparable to earlier technological revolutions such as mechanization, precision-guided weapons, or nuclear technology.ul story.1
This commentary argues that artificial intelligence has the potential to transform the conduct of war to a degree that may influence even aspects of its nature. Unlike previous technologies that enhanced human performance on the battlefield, AI introduces the possibility that machines could partially replace human decision-making and physical participation in combat.
At the same time, despite the disruptive potential of AI, classical strategic theory suggests that technological superiority alone rarely guarantees victory. War remains a multidimensional phenomenon shaped not only by technology but also by political objectives, geography, logistics, organizational effectiveness, and human decision-making. Therefore, while AI may transform the battlefield radically, it does not completely eliminate the enduring principles of strategy.
This commentary examines the potential impact of AI on warfare in three parts. First, it explores how AI may influence warfare at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels using currently available technologies. Second, it evaluates these developments from the perspective of strategic theory, emphasizing that warfare is shaped not only by technology but also by other enduring dimensions such as logistics, geography, and political context. It also admits the fact that AI is the most disruptive technological innovation that might challenge this concept. Finally, it assesses which actors may benefit most from AI-driven warfare and argues that the states most capable of effectively integrating AI into military systems are likely to hold a significant advantage in future conflicts.
The ethical implications of AI in warfare were intentionally omitted in this paper. The author strongly supports the idea that the ethical questions surrounding autonomous weapons, algorithmic targeting, and the role of human control in lethal decision-making are critically important and require urgent global attention. He acknowledges also the necessity of developing international regulatory frameworks governing military AI. However, for the purposes of analytical clarity, this commentary approaches the subject primarily from a practical and strategic perspective rather than a normative one.
Artificial Intelligence Across Tactical, Operational, and Strategic Levels
Artificial intelligence has the potential to influence warfare across all levels of military activity: tactical, operational, and strategic. It is worth noting that many of these possibilities are not speculative but already technically feasible with existing technologies.
At the tactical level, the level of direct combat and battlefield engagement, AI enables the development of autonomous or semi-autonomous systems capable of performing tasks traditionally carried out by human soldiers. Robotics technologies have advanced significantly in recent years. Companies such as Unitree Robotics and Tesla have demonstrated humanoid robots capable of complex mobility, navigation, and interaction with physical environments. While these systems are currently developed primarily for civilian applications, their underlying technological capabilities suggest that robotic soldiers could eventually perform certain battlefield roles such as reconnaissance, logistics support, or even combat operations.2
Autonomous ground vehicles represent another potential transformation of tactical warfare. Driverless technologies already exist in the civilian sector and could be adapted for military vehicles such as tanks, armored personnel carriers, and supply platforms. Autonomous systems could operate in highly contested environments without risking human personnel. Similarly, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have already become central components of modern warfare.
UAVs are perhaps the most advanced example of AI integration in warfare. Drone swarms can operate collectively using artificial intelligence algorithms that coordinate movement, targeting, and information sharing among large numbers of platforms. China’s UAV choreography demonstrations show how large numbers of drones can operate in coordinated formations, each drone following simple rules about spacing, altitude, and alignment to produce complex, resilient group maneuvers. The fact that hundreds or even thousands of drones can move in precise patterns under software control shows that similar techniques could be adapted to military missions such as overwhelming air defenses, distributed ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), or coordinated strikes.3
Artificial intelligence also enhances tactical decision-making by improving situational awareness. Machine learning algorithms can analyze sensor data, satellite imagery, communications intercepts, and battlefield telemetry faster than human analysts. This capability enables faster threat identification and targeting decisions, accelerating the military decision cycle.
At the operational level, the level concerned with campaigns and coordination between multiple battles, AI’s most significant contribution lies in the integration and analysis of large volumes of battlefield data. Modern military operations generate enormous amounts of information across multiple domains including land, sea, air, cyber, and space.4 AI systems can synthesize this data into operational insights that assist commanders in coordinating complex campaigns. Advanced algorithms can evaluate possible courses of action, simulate battlefield scenarios, and recommend optimal strategies.
For example, AI could assist in planning maneuvers, troop deployments, and supply routes. By analyzing terrain, weather conditions, and enemy movements, AI systems can suggest operational plans that maximize effectiveness while minimizing risk. Military simulations powered by AI can evaluate thousands of potential outcomes, helping commanders anticipate enemy responses and adjust their strategies accordingly.
A prominent real-world example of operational-level AI use is the deployment of Palantir’s data integration platforms. Palantir software systems such as Gotham and the Artificial Intelligence Platform integrate intelligence data from multiple sources and provide commanders with analytical tools that support targeting, logistics planning, and battlefield awareness. Reports from recent conflicts suggest that such platforms have helped accelerate operational decision-making by enabling commanders to process large datasets rapidly and identify operational opportunities.5
For another example, DARPA has been researching AI-assisted decision-making systems for years. These initiatives aim to create systems that can support military commanders by rapidly analyzing complex operational environments. Instead of replacing commanders, these tools function as decision-support systems, providing recommendations based on large-scale data analysis.6
These systems demonstrate how AI can support the operational decision cycle by improving the speed of observation, orientation, decision, and action. In complex multi-domain operations, AI-assisted platforms can help synchronize activities across multiple military units and domains.
At the strategic level, the level concerned with national objectives, war planning, and grand strategy, artificial intelligence may assist national leadership by providing advanced analytical capabilities for global security monitoring. AI-driven systems can analyze satellite imagery, economic indicators, communications data, and social media information to detect emerging threats or geopolitical trends. Such capabilities may improve early warning systems and assist policymakers in evaluating potential courses of action.
However, while AI can support strategic decision-making, it is unlikely that national leaders will fully delegate strategic decisions to machines. Strategic decisions involve political judgment, ethical considerations, and risk assessment-factors that remain fundamentally human.
Artificial Intelligence and Strategic Theory
Despite the transformative potential of AI, strategic theory suggests that technological innovation alone does not determine the outcome of wars. Military strategist Colin S. Gray emphasizes that warfare is shaped by multiple dimensions beyond technology, including geography, logistics, political objectives, culture, and human behavior.7 Technology can provide advantages, but it must be integrated within a broader strategic context.
Similarly, Hew Strachan argues that strategy fundamentally concerns the relationship between military means and political ends.8 Even the most advanced military technology has limited value if it does not contribute effectively to political objectives. Artificial intelligence may enhance military capabilities, but it cannot substitute for coherent strategic planning.
The emergence of AI also raises important questions about the Clausewitzian understanding of war. Carl von Clausewitz famously described war as a continuation of politics by other means and emphasized the central role of human actors within the “remarkable trinity” consisting of the people, the military, and the government.9 Clausewitz also highlighted the importance of friction, uncertainty, and the fog of war.
Artificial intelligence does not eliminate these characteristics. Friction and uncertainty remain inherent in complex military environments. AI systems themselves introduce new forms of vulnerability, including cyber attacks, algorithmic bias, and data manipulation. Adversaries may exploit these weaknesses through electronic warfare, cyber operations, or deception strategies.AI can, in theory, reduce certain aspects of friction and the “fog of war” by improving situational awareness, speeding decisions, and automating routine tasks. It may also create new forms of “algorithmic friction,” such as unexpected system interactions, biased training data, adversarial attacks on models, and brittle behavior outside training distributions. Rather than eliminating uncertainty, AI shifts and sometimes intensifies it, especially when opaque systems make rapid recommendations that humans struggle to interpret or challenge under time pressure.10
Antulio Echevarria argues that technological innovations typically change the character of war without altering its fundamental nature.11 Artificial intelligence may represent one of the strongest challenges to this distinction because it introduces the possibility that machines could replace humans on the physical battlefield. What makes AI particularly significant is its potential to replace humans in certain aspects of warfare. Throughout history, technological innovations have augmented human soldiers but rarely replaced them entirely. AI-driven autonomous systems represent the first technology with the potential to substitute human actors in both decision-making and physical combat roles.This possibility represents a major conceptual challenge to traditional theories of war.
In other words, what makes AI unique as a challenge to Clausewitz is its potential to displace human beings even at the physical front, not just in the rear echelons or supporting roles. Previous revolutions in military technology -rifled weapons, mechanization, airpower, nuclear weapons- dramatically changed lethality and scale but still relied on humans as the core agents of violence and decision. Autonomous weapon systems and robotic combat platforms raise the possibility that, at least in some theaters or phases of conflict, machines could fight machines with limited human presence in the battlespace.12
However, it is important to distinguish between technological possibility and practical implementation. Possessing a technology does not automatically guarantee that it can be effectively integrated into military doctrine, institutions, and operational practice.Many technologies that are technically feasible may be difficult to deploy effectively in real-world military contexts. Issues such as reliability, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, ethical considerations, and political constraints may limit the widespread adoption of fully autonomous military systems.
Thus, while AI has transformative potential, its real-world impact will depend on how effectively states integrate these technologies within broader military structures.
Realizing the Potential of AI in Future Warfare
The decisive factor in future conflicts will not simply be which states develop artificial intelligence technologies, but which states are able to integrate them most effectively into military institutions and strategic practice.
Lawrence Freedman emphasizes that strategy involves continuous adaptation rather than simply possessing superior tools.13 Technologies become strategically decisive only when organizations develop doctrines and operational concepts that exploit them effectively.
Similarly, Lukas Milevski highlights the importance of linking tactical success to political outcomes through coherent operational design.14 AI-enabled systems may produce tactical advantages, but those advantages must translate into operational and strategic effects in order to influence the outcome of war.
The ability to realize the potential of AI may vary across political systems. States with strong central coordination and a collective mindset may enjoy certain advantages in this race. Countries such as China have demonstrated an ability to mobilize large-scale technological efforts, including massive drone swarms and AI-enabled infrastructure, often at lower cost and with fewer procedural obstacles than Western democracies. This capacity to push big projects quickly from concept to demonstration—and potentially to deployment—could translate into faster realization of AI’s military potential, especially in domains where concerns over labor rights, privacy, or civil liberties are less constraining.
In contrast, democratic states often face regulatory frameworks, labor protections, and complex procurement procedures that increase the cost and time required to develop new defense technologies. While these mechanisms promote accountability and protect individual rights, they may slow the implementation of emerging technologies.
Nevertheless, Western states also possess important advantages, including strong research universities, dynamic technology companies, and advanced innovation ecosystems. Ultimately, the outcome of future technological competition will depend on how effectively states combine technological innovation with strategic integration, and integrate AI technologies into military strategies, operational doctrines, and organizational structures.
Conclusion
Artificial intelligence represents one of the most significant technological developments shaping the future of warfare. At the tactical level, autonomous systems and drone swarms may transform battlefield operations. At the operational level, AI-enabled platforms such as Palantir demonstrate how data integration can accelerate military decision-making. At the strategic level, AI may enhance situational awareness and support national security planning.
However, classical strategic theory reminds us that technology alone does not determine victory. The insights of Gray, Strachan, Freedman, and Milevski demonstrate that war remains a multidimensional phenomenon shaped by political objectives, geography, logistics, institutions, and human decision-making.
Artificial intelligence may therefore represent a disruptive innovation capable of transforming the battlefield and potentially influencing aspects of the nature of war. Yet the ultimate winners of future conflicts will not simply be those who possess AI technologies, but those who can integrate them most effectively within a coherent strategic framework.
References
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- Paul Scharre, Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War (New York: W.W. Norton, 2018).
- Universal Data Analytics and Sciences (WorldSUAS), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1109/worldsuas66815.2025.11199241.Zachary Kallenborn and Philipp Bleek, “Swarming Destruction: Drone Swarms and the Future of Warfare,” War on the Rocks (2019). Slyusar, V., Kozlov, V., Pochernin, S., & Nalapko, I. (2025). Conceptual foundations of the swarm employment of unmanned aerial vehicles as intelligent means of electronic warfare. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 3(2(83), 71–80. https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2025.329989
- Davis, S. (2022). Artificial intelligence at the operational level of war. Defense & Security Analysis, 38, 74 – 90. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2022.2031692.
- Egbert, S., Galis, V., & Gundhus, H. (2024). The role of data integration and analysis platforms in contemporary society: an introduction. Information, Communication & Society, 27, 2333 – 2342. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118x.2024.2433556. Ulbricht, L., & Egbert, S. (2024). In Palantir we trust? Regulation of data analysis platforms in public security. Big Data & Society, 11. https://doi.org/10.1177/20539517241255108.Christopher Miller, Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology (New York: Scribner, 2022).
- Military News, “DARPA Wants AI Program to Crunch Data for Commanders”, August 19, 2020, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/08/19/darpa-wants-ai-program-crunch-data-commanders.html
- Colin S. Gray, Modern Strategy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999)
- Hew Strachan, The Direction of War: Contemporary Strategy in Historical Perspective (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013).
- Carl von Clausewitz, On War, trans. Michael Howard and Peter Paret (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984)
- F. G. Hoffman, Will War’s Nature Change in the Seventh Military Revolution?, (The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, Volume 47, Number 4, WInter 2017)
- Antulio J. Echevarria II, Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017).
- F. G. Hoffman, Will War’s Nature Change in the Seventh Military Revolution?, (The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, Volume 47, Number 4, WInter 2017).
- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013).
- Lukas Milevski, Strategic Theory and Clausewitz’s Trinitarian T rinitarian Test
